Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled – WWIII Prelude News 9/6/2023 – Kakhovka Dam, Ukr Losses, & Conspiracy
Beginning of the 4th of June, Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Donetsk region has come to nothing. Although ground was won in the initial days, it wasn’t very significant and it wasn’t held for very long. The initial all-sorts mix of soldiers rushed the weakest Russian defensive lines with about 30,000 men. By day 2 the initial force had been pushed back by Russian artillery and rocketing, ultimately costing 16 tanks and 300 lives. Their forces reconstituted into a more sensible combined-arms force and engaged the enemy again.
After 5 days of fighting, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has come to an operational pause, with estimates saying this foolish endeavour cost them about 7,000 lives, with an as-yet uncalculated number of injured and captured. Of the 60 Leopard-2 tanks gifted to Ukraine, 16 of them have been destroyed, along with comparable numbers of Swedish, French, Dutch, Czech etc vehicles.
I hate this job
I’m burdened by the responsibility to share crucial information sourced from reliable outlets. However, my dedication to presenting the truth sometimes leads to misconceptions that I am unconditionally pro-Russian. While it is true that I sympathize with Russia, I do not go to the extent of distorting facts or inventing narratives to glorify their actions. The reality is that this conflict, unlike the “Shock and Awe” of the Americans or the Blitzkrieg of Nazi Germany, is slow in terms of square-meter progress, but it’s undeniably going in Russia’s favour.
Consequently, it may appear as if I take pleasure in Russian triumphs, as if the rising casualty count in Ukraine brings me satisfaction. But the truth is, I often fail to adequately contemplate the irreversible toll this war exacts on Ukraine, the entire region, and indeed the wider world. Joseph Stalin once rightfully observed, “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of a million is a statistic.” Yet, secluded from the front lines, it is all too easy for me to detach the numbers—30, 300, 7,000—from the Human Beings they represent.
Each digit that I read and relay to you represents a life—a life of profound depth and significance. They were individuals who inhabited a world of their own, an enigmatic and impenetrable realm brimming with experiences, loves, hates, fears, and dreams. They were cherished by their loved ones and interconnected with countless others. These lives, tragically lost, bear witness to the callous disregard of autocrats and arms producers, who exploited their love for family and nation, ultimately leading them towards a senseless demise.
The weight of this responsibility bears heavily upon me, for I despise my role in reducing these individuals to mere statistics. I yearn to convey that they were not faceless entities, but real people—each a world unto themselves. It is a job I loathe, having to write about them while trying to maintain their dignity, knowing they deserve more than the indifferent treatment they receive.
Пам’ять героям – ніколи не забудемо (In memory of the heroes – we will never forget)
Homes Flooded by Kakhovka Dam Breach
On Tuesday, the Kakhovka dam broke, flooding a rising total of 22,300 homes as well as countless commercial and industrial buildings in the Kherson region, leading to evacuations and other humanitarian disasters, such as the displacement of countless mines along the front lines, which will inevitably cause deaths to both civilians and military personnel in the future. As one can imagine, a relatively light pieces of equipment like a mine could be dragged by the water several miles away from its intended “home” (in this case, likely downstream West toward the Black Sea). Although prolonged submersion in water CAN render a mine inert, it’s possible it will only become dysfunctional, or it could simply remain working as intended. There is no publicly-available intel on whether these mines are Russian, Ukrainian, or both, and none of these mine-producers are excited to tell the world about their vulnerabilities or waterproofing – but it’s worth noting that they’re designed to be planted in marshes and withstand rainy and muddy conditions.
Officials have said there’s no need for evacuations as most people have left the effected region because of the ongoing conflict – something I found funny until I remembered how awful it is.
The Mayor of the Kakhovka District has told the public that the dam breach is the result of deliberate Ukrainian sabotage.
Experts say the water levels are due to recede over the next three days, however the artificial boundarias of the Dniper river created by the dam in the 1950s will be somewhat altered. Engineers also forecast that it will take the same number of years to fix the extensive damage as it took to build the entire thing from scratch (about 19 years).
Ukrainian authorities say the disruption of the dam will not effect the electrical supply in the country. In 2021 the dam provided 0.67% of the country’s power production – before the war, Ukraine exported roughly 3.4 terawatt hours of electricity, and although their export fell dramatically after the beginning of the conflict, the dam’s power production is relatively minor compared to the coal and nuclear plants. One consideration is, however, the dam’s supply of water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been disrupted. If the plant doesn’t have an alternative coolant source, it has to be shut down to avoid a nuclear meltdown, meaning a significant shortage of supply, as it generates 425,000-times more kilowatt hours than the dam itself.
The reservoir created by the dam also supplies other towns and cities in the region, including Crimea. Russian officials have assured residents. The reservoir has traditionally been the main source of water for the peninsula, but Ukraine had blocked the waterflow after the 2014 Referendum decided Crimea would re-join with Russia. After Russia gained control of the region in 2022 (and subsequently annexed them), the water supply was restored. As of Tuesday their reservoirs were at 80% capacity and, although civilian usage will remain unchanged, agricultural irrigation is being limited.
Who Destroyed the Dam?
This is this big question of the month. Each side – Russia or Ukraine – have valid agruments. The destruction of the dam effects the citizens, industry, and military of both sides. Both sides claim the other is an uncaring monster, willing to inflict suffering and suffering upon themselves for a larger strategic goal. Crimea and the newly-annexed parts of Russia are without water and are flooded and Ukraine is due to suffer massive electricity shortages. Both militaries are suffering as Ukraine was “island hopping” across the reservoir to effect their counteroffensive and Russia must withdraw from their long-established entrenched front lines.
Here’s an alternative theory. We already know, largely thanks to the work of historic journalist Seymour Hersh, that the bombing of the Nordstream gas pipeline was the work of the American intelligence agency. Germany was under mounting pressure by their population to turn the tap back on and continue buying gas from Russia as the cost of living was driving countless into poverty and homelessness, but that option was taken away from Germany, further propelling them into the war. Now, a dam has been destroyed – one which both sides depended upon immensely. Neither side, in their right mind, would destroy it. The perfect target for a 3rd party instigator. It seems that every time Ukraine shows the slightest signs of coming to terms with Russia, some story blows up in the media or a foreign dignitary (like Britain’s Boris Johnson) visits Kyiv, and the war continues.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine blew up this dam, and both sides are playing into the hands of somebody else by blaming the other.